MLB draft preview: 4 players Cardinals could target with No. 7 pick (2024)

The Athletic has live coverage of the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft.

As Major League Baseball closes in on its annual amateur draft, the pressure is on the St. Louis Cardinals to take advantage of an unfamiliar position.

The Cardinals have the seventh pick, marking the first time the organization will select in the top 10 since taking J.D. Drew at No. 5 in 1998. This time, St. Louis won’t pick again until the third round, as it lost its second-round selection due to signing a qualified free agent (Sonny Gray).

It’s uncharted territory for scouting director Randy Flores and his squad.

“It’s new for all of us,” Flores said in a recent interview. “You have a certain rhythm to the scouting schedule that you get to your final board in a way that’s different when you’re picking in the back third relative to the first third.”

This year’s draft takes place Sunday in Arlington, Texas, coinciding with MLB’s All-Star week. The Cardinals have a bonus pool of $10,213,000 (though they’ve outspent their pool in all 12 years since bonus pools were first initiated). Their assigned value for the No. 7 pick is $6,823,700.

Which brings us to the obvious question: Who will the Cardinals draft with their first top-10 pick in 26 years? The Cleveland Guardians have the No. 1 selection and virtually no one seems to know what direction they’ll go. Travis Bazzana and Charlie Condon are the top two names available, but JJ Wetherholt and Jac Caglianone could be sleeper selections.

The Cardinals should be in a good spot once they’re on the clock.The Athletic’s Keith Law’s most recent mock draft has St. Louis selecting prep infielder Bryce Rainer, but plenty of other names remain on their board.

Here, Law and Cardinals beat writer Katie Woo break down four players the Cardinals could target Sunday night.

JJ Wetherholt, INF, West Virginia

Age: 21

Law’s draft prospect ranking: No. 3

Law’s scouting report: (Wetherholt’s swing) is very short and direct to the ball, and he doesn’t miss strikes — over the last two seasons, his whiff rate on pitches in the zone is around 6 percent, which looks like a typo. It’s just a simple, efficient swing, with one move back to load and then a rapid uncoiling at the ball that gets maximum impact from his upper and lower body. What no one can tell you is whether he can stay healthy; this year’s hamstring injury was the second major one he’s suffered inside of 12 months, and it kept him off the field entirely for six weeks.”

Latest mock draft pick: No. 6 to the Kansas City Royals

Woo’s analysis: There’s no consensus about where Wetherholt ends up. He entered the year as a potential No. 1 candidate, but a Grade 3 hamstring strain at the beginning of his season — his second hamstring injury in 12 months — could impact where he lands. It doesn’t help that the industry lacks a true read on what the Guardians will do.

Widely regarded as the best contact bat in his class, Wetherholt rebounded firmly from injury, posting a .331 average and 1.061 OPS in 36 games with eight homers. Power isn’t his bread and butter though; his contact rate in the strike zone makes him an enticing talent. He has a high line-drive rate from the left side compared to a low swing-and-miss rate (especially on pitches in the zone) and can drive the ball to all fields. His plus speed makes him a legitimate threat on the bases. There’s some debate about where he’ll end up defensively. Wetherholt played both second and third for West Virginia before his second hamstring strain but played only shortstop this season. Some scouts are bullish he’ll remain at shortstop and have slotted him to second base as a professional.

Health concerns will help decide Wetherholt’s fate. He put together a strong enough campaign that some teams may be inclined to believe his injuries won’t be a problem. They could strike a deal below slot value and take him in the first few selections. The likelihood is that Wetherholt will be selected before the Cardinals can take him. But if he is available, expect St. Louis to be in.

What Law says: “If he’s there, and your doctors say it’s fine, you take him. Wetherholt might be the No. 1 prospect in the draft had he not missed almost two months with a hamstring injury, his second significant hamstring injury in the last year. This would be a straight-up value pick — we don’t get this guy if he’s healthy and at the seventh pick, the upside he offers more than mitigates the risk when compared to the next-best option.”

Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest

Age:21

Law’s draft prospect ranking: No. 5

Law’s scouting report: Mechanical questions haven’t hurt his command or control, as he’s walked just 8 percent of batters (through May 13) and has shown he can pitch to the edges of the strike zone. I don’t think he’s far from being able to help a major-league club, especially after a dominant performance in one of the top two conferences in college baseball, with a No. 2 starter ceiling.

Latest mock draft pick:No. 3 the Colorado Rockies

Woo’s analysis: As the top right-handed pitcher in this year’s draft class, Burns will capture attention because of how he lights up the radar gun — his fastball sits upper 90s and touches 100. But it is the pitch he pairs it with, a devastating 70-grade slider, that allows him to be so effective.

Burns went 10-1 with a 2.70 ERA over 100 innings (16 starts) after transferring from Tennessee to Wake Forest. He struck out 191 batters, good for a strikeout rate of nearly 50 percent. Scouts believe he’s close to being major-league ready, and pitching is certainly an area the Cardinals would like to fortify. But organizations don’t draft for need, they draft for best available talent. Burns could check both boxes.

What Law says: (See Hagen Smith comment below)

Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas

Age: 20

Law’s draft prospect ranking: No. 6

Law’s scouting report: It’s a funky delivery that he doesn’t hold together deep into his starts, and teams will be scrutinizing his mechanics even more closely because he’s already had one Tommy John surgery, back in high school. … Smith has No. 2 starter upside if he can hold his stuff deeper into outings, and perhaps if he moves toward the middle of the rubber so he can work to both sides of the plate.

Latest mock draft pick: No. 8 to the Los Angeles Angels

Woo’s analysis: Like Burns, Smith is one of the top arms available, and arguably the top left-handed option. He has a strong fastball that sits mid-90s and a slider that’s effective against hitters on either side of the plate. Smith logged 84 innings for Arkansas this season and struck out 161 batters, giving him strikeout numbers similar to Burns.

Smith underwent Tommy John surgery in high school, which might deter some teams, but he’s the top collegiate left-handed arm available and a likely top 10 pick.

What Law says: “One of these guys will probably be gone by this pick, and it’s possible both will be, as they’re the top right- and left-handed pitchers, respectively, in the class. Burns does it a little easier and has never had a major arm injury, while Smith is left-handed and has had much more consistent performance in college while seeing his velocity increase each year, but with one Tommy John already on his resume.”

Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake High

Age:19

Law’s draft prospect ranking:No. 9

Law’s scouting report: Rainer’s got power, with good loft in his swing to drive the ball to all fields, but it’s not great bat speed and he’s struggled when facing above-average velocity. Everybody throws hard these days, so he’s going to have to find a way to catch up to it as he enters pro ball. The plus defense/20-homer potential is enough to get someone to roll the dice on his bat in the top third of the first round.

Latest mock draft pick:No. 7 to the Cardinals

Woo’s analysis: Rainer and Konnor Griffin (an outfielder and shortstop out of Jackson Prep in Flowood, Miss.) are probably the top two prep talents in this year’s class. Rainer is a strong shortstop who hits for power from the left side. Before his senior season, there were questions about where Rainer would slot defensively, with some scouts believing he would profile better as a starting pitcher (similar to a Harvard-Westlake product the Cardinals are quite familiar with, Jack Flaherty, who was selected with the club’s first pick in 2014).

But Rainer made his emergence as a shortstop clear this year, and now he’s the top infield prep talent available. He hits for power and is a plus defender with a 70-grade arm. However, there are questions about whether he has the bat speed to catch up to higher velocities.

What Law says: “Rainer’s the best high school prospect in the draft in my view, a polished shortstop with a plus-plus arm and great feel on both sides of the ball. He was by far the best prospect at the NHSI tournament in April, an event that’s heavily attended by scouts and scouting directors, and offers the added comfort of a player who’s faced consistently strong competition playing in southern California. Yes, I’m aware they have a great young shortstop in the majors, but you don’t draft for need in baseball — you take the best player available.”

(Top photo of Hagen Smith: Michael Wade / Icon Sportswire via Associated Press)