Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA on LinkedIn: Twitter Spaces and Interactive Livestreams… What the heck are… (2024)

🚨The U.S dollar is on a tear. On track for its best run in more than a year.Why? Higher for longer interest rates and increased geopolitical risk.The first FED cut not expected until September.Money market funds just reached an all-time high of +$6.1 trillion.Don’t fight the U.S dollar!

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Stocks down always go up ; (S&P down -1.69% this week...Let's recap: - Gold hits new record high of +$2,400/oz. Now up +23% over last 6 months (+40% higher than S&P)- Costco selling as much as $200 million in gold bars monthly- VIX up +25% today. Up +50% from low 3 weeks ago- JPMorgan beats earnings (+6% YoY), but outlook for Net Interest Income lower than analyst expect for 2024. Stock down -6.47% today- Citigroup beat Q1 estimates (but profits down -27% YoY on higher expenses)- Wells Fargo beat Q1 estimates (but EPS down slightly YoY)- March CPI +0.4% MoM above expectations of +0.3% MoM (up +3.5% YoY vs +3.4% expected). Third month of “hotter than expected” readings- WSJ analysis found that a commonly purchased basket of supermarket goods increased in price by +36.5% over past 4 years (+8.1% per year), much higher than US Government CPI figures which show food price inflation of +24.9% (+5.7%/year)- US gas prices +16% so far this year ($3.71/gallon)- U.S auto insurance rates up +22% YoY. Biggest 1-year spike since 1976.- U.S 10-year yield hit +4.54%, the most since November 2023- US 30-year average mortgage rates hit 7% again- Average interest rate on US credit card balances now 21.6% (Highest rate since data started in 1994)-Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan says interest rates could hit 8% or more-Larry Summers, Former Treasury Secretary: “You have to take seriously the possibility that the next rate move will be upwards rather than downwards”-Money-market fund assets hit new record high of +$6.11 trillion-Interest rate futures pricing in 13% chance of ZERO rate cuts this year. Now only 2 cuts expected in 2024. This is down from 7 cuts projected just a few month back.- Elon Musk says that AI will be smarter than the smartest human by next year- VC funding in the U.S is down 30% YoY in Q1- Billionaire Steve Cohen says his financial firm can already save $25 million by using AI- U.S office vacancies hit record high of +19.8%- Largest office building in St.Louis sold for $3.5MM, in 2005 it sold for $205MM. Probably nothing- Norfolk Southern to pay $600MM to settle a class action lawsuit over Feb. 2023 East Palestine, Ohio train derailment that spilled toxic chemicals-JPMorgan says stocks are so crowded they may crack at any time- Ken Griffin of Citadel says: “It is irresponsible for the U.S. government to incur a deficit of 6.4% when unemployment is hovering around 3.75%. We must stop borrowing at the expense of future generations.”- Interest payments on U.S debt continues to hit record highs.Have an amazing weekend everyone!I will be kicking my feet up, drinking coronas and watching the Masters 🍻

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This isn’t bitcoin, tech stocks or even U.S federal debt. It’s the price of gold hitting new record high! Is anyone paying attention?

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🚨JPMorgan stock down -2.5% this morning (in pre-market).They beat earnings in Q1 (+6% YoY)…But they missed analyst estimates on full-year Net Interest Income ($89B vs $90.68B).Their interest expense went up +49% YoY.This has the stock under pressure.CEO warned: “unsettling global landscape, highlighting a cascade of pressures including war, rising geopolitical tensions and inflation that threaten the economy and could weigh on the performance of the nation’s largest bank”

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🚨Is the FED’s next move a HIKE?Here's what top leaders said in the last few days:- Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan: “We are prepared for a very broad range of interest rates, from 2% to 8% or even more”- Larry Summers, Former Treasury Secretary: “You have to take seriously the possibility that the next rate move will be upwards rather than downwards”- Michelle Bowman, FED Governor: “I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse"Whispers are getting louder.Probably nothing.

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🚨The 2024 Masters golf tournament starts today.It's the one place where INFLATION appears to be missing.Sandwiches for $1.50…Maybe the folks behind the Masters should run the FED!

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🚨The CPI came in at +0.4% above expectations of +0.3% month-over-month.This follows January and February being hotter readings than expected.This could be the start of inflation rearing its ugly head again. The FED will NOT like this.Rate cuts will be pushed out – and may not even happen this year.Rate cut expectations have gone from 7 to less than 3 in just a few months. Ouch.

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🚨Interest payments on U.S debt continues to hit record highs.This is unfolding as the 10-year yield could climb to 16-year highs of +5%.This is one of the most shocking charts I have seen in a long time.This can’t end well.

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🚨Bond yields hit 2024 highThe 10-year yield hits highest since November – getting close to 4.5%Market now thinks only two interest rate cuts in 2024JPMorgan thinks first rate cut not until JulyI think no rate cut until SeptemberAll eyes on CPI Wednesday

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